JPMorgan ups Turkey inflation, interest rate forecasts
© Reuters. People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Turkey July 5, 2023. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya/File photo USD/TRY +0.53% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to:
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The bank also said it saw upside risks to its year-end policy rate forecast, which it kept at 35%, but predicted that the central bank’s key interest rate would end next year at 45% rather than previous estimates of 40%.
“August CPI suggests protracted disinflation process,” JPMorgan’s Fatih Akcelik said in a note to clients.
“Since we expect persistent inflation, we forecast more monetary tightening to address inflationary pressures after March 2024 municipal elections.”
Turkey’s annual inflation rate surged to a higher-than-expected 58.94% in August, official data showed earlier on Monday, rising for a second month after a steep fall in the lira currency and recent tax increases.