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Share to FacebookShare to TwitterShare to LinkedinInvesting: no better than a crap shoot?

getty Cynics about investing, and there are quite a few, think that stocks are too dangerous a place to put your hard-earned money, expecting growth. They liken it to wagering in a casino. I’ve heard this a lot in the wake of the 2022 equity market plunge. We asked veteran financial advisor Rick Kahler, president of Kahler Financial Group in Rapid City, S. D., for his thoughts on the stock-casino comparison.

Larry Light: Is investing in the stock market akin to gambling? I often hear that comparison.

Rick Kahler: It certainly carries a reasonable amount of risk. Yet, done correctly, investing in the market is not remotely gambling.

For comparison, consider games of chance. The best one to play is blackjack. If you play every hand statistically correctly, the odds of winning over a long period of play are 0%, but you will lose less money than with other games. In blackjack, for every $100 you bet, you will lose just $1 to $2—and that’s if you play each hand perfectly, which you won’t. Other games of chance have considerably worse odds than blackjack. Keno and slot machines lead the pack, with a 100% chance of losing up to $50 for every $100 bet over time. Games of chance might qualify as “investing” only if you own a casino.

Light: And the stock market?

Kahler: Casinos are quite different from the stock market, where the chance of a positive return over a long period of time, say 10 years, is over 94%. Put another way, the chance of losing in the long term is just 6%, versus 100% with gambling. For every $100 put into the stock market, there is a 94% chance you will gain an additional $96 after 10 years (an annual return of 7%), and I am being conservative. Past performance indicates the annual return of U.S. Stocks has ranged from 9% to 14% over the past 10 to 30 years.

The crucial phrase, as I expressed a moment ago, is “done correctly,” which essentially means investing rather than speculating. Speculating, namely gambling, has a short-term horizon and is typically fast-moving and full of adrenaline and excitement. Investing done correctly, on the other hand, has a long-term view and is very slow moving and boring.

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Kahler: Absolutely. Done incorrectly, putting money in the stock market is not investing at all. It is all-out gambling, with the chances of losing money similar to playing any game of chance.

Some common examples of gambling often smoke-screened as “investing” include: frequent trading of securities, also called day trading; undiversified bets on single stocks; trying to buy low and sell high; buying naked puts, options and shorts; playing futures markets; and playing cryptocurrency markets

All of these activities are speculating, not investing.

Light: What does investing in the stock market look like?

Kahler: It could be putting your money in exchange-traded funds, also known as an ETFs, or mutual funds that holds thousands of diversified stocks around the world, like a global index stock fund. Then you leave that money alone without touching it for 10 or more years. That is boring. It doesn’t require studying the stock market, picking the winners or avoiding the losers.

Almost anyone can invest successfully. The key is to keep it boring by not panicking when markets decline by 50%, which they can do, and not selling when you think they are high. Once your funds are invested in an index fund with low costs, avoiding action is your friend. The chances of success are hugely in your favor.

Light: Any further thoughts on the subject?

Kahler: Of course, there is a caveat: that you have a time horizon of 10 years or more, and don’t need any of these funds in the short term. As ethical financial advisors will tell you, markets fluctuate and there will be times when your portfolio will decline in value. Over the long term, however, the chances are high that it will increase. This is why a diversified portfolio, left alone, is investing and not gambling. This also why investing, done correctly, includes starting as early as you can.

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